Friday, June 19, 2009

I think we're in the early stages of a bull market. The operative question that nobody knows the answer to is this: Are we in a secular bull market, such as we saw coming off of 1982, that's going to last for 10, 15 or maybe even more years? Or is it a cyclical bull market? Or is it just a bull episode in a continuing bear market? I think that we're looking, at the least, at the kind of market we had from 2003 to 2007–a multi-year bull episode. Now, when that bull episode ended, we had the bear market that we think ended in a bottoming process that ran from last fall to this spring. And, in the post-war period, when we've had very bad periods–with the market down 20% to 30%–the market has always been up more than 20% the following year. That's what I would expect for 2009. There's an opportunity to make four or five times your money in a three-year period.

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