SUPER GROUP is cash generating, SMRT dividend is dwindling

SUPER GROUP is cash generating, SMRT dividend is dwindling: "The previously unimaginable has happened. SMRT is expecting its first ever quarterly loss in its history for 4QFY3/13. This loss guidance validates our sustained SELL call, and we are reiterating it with a reduced, street-low target price of SGD1.19.

Ø  SMRT has been a dividend darling in the past, with stable and growing earnings providing  shareholders with a steady stream of dividends to look forward to.

However those days of stability and certainty  look  to be coming to an end, as our final dividend forecast for FY3/13 is correspondingly cut by 30% to SG 3.5 cts /share.

Ø  In light of such firm guidance on the challenges ahead for land transport  operators  like SMRT, we are slashing our earnings forecasts by 25%  for FY3/13 and ~10% for FY3/14-15. Our target price is reduced to  SGD1.19, as we maintain our valuation peg to 15x FY3/14 PER, a full
standard deviation below mean.

SELL SMRT."

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Four Factors Holding Down China Shares

Four Factors Holding Down China Shares: "Some of the proposals made public so far include only allowing single adult in Beijing one apartment purchase versus two units previously.

In a further anti-speculation move, if homeowners flip properties within five years of purchase, they will be assessed an additional 20% capital gains tax, and down payments on subsequent property purchases will be boosted.

The Beijing municipal government will also no longer issues sales licenses for property projects assessed at prices “much higher” than average levels in the area.

Indeterminate phraseology like “much higher” often spook away investors yearning for more market clarity.

Another major domestic property market – Shanghai – will also begin banning loan approvals for third properties"


But since so many industries are reliant on these two industries – including banks, insurers, brokerages, developers, construction material plays, etc – there have been no white knight sector themes to swoop in and take over the baton of bullishness.

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John Sculley: Seeing Steve Jobs Everywhere - Businessweek

John Sculley: Seeing Steve Jobs Everywhere - Businessweek: "“A true talent, in the spirit of Steve Jobs.”"

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Steve Jobs's First-Choice Location for Apple, His Obsession with Stairs, Architecture: A Timeline - Architecture Aficionado - Businessweek

Steve Jobs's First-Choice Location for Apple, His Obsession with Stairs, Architecture: A Timeline - Architecture Aficionado - Businessweek:

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Why Steve Jobs Tapped Norman Foster to Design Apple's Future HQ - Premier Architect - Businessweek

Why Steve Jobs Tapped Norman Foster to Design Apple's Future HQ - Premier Architect - Businessweek:

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Inside Apple's Plans for Its Futuristic, $5 Billion Headquarters - Businessweek

Inside Apple's Plans for Its Futuristic, $5 Billion Headquarters - Businessweek: "

“It’s a little like a spaceship,” he said of the massive, four-story ring, which, at 2.8 million square feet, would be two-thirds the size of the Pentagon and set among 176 acres of trees where today there are mostly asphalt parking lots. “We have a shot,” he said, “at building the best office building in the world. I really do think that architecture students will come here to see it.”

“It would take some convincing for me to understand why $5 billion is the right number for a project like this,” says Keith Goddard, the chief executive of Tulsa-based Capital Advisors, which owns 30,537 shares of Apple. “This is rubbing salt in the wound, to spend at a level that most anyone would say is extravagant, at a time when they’re being so stingy on dividends.” If the stock continues to underperform, Goddard predicts, “this headquarters would perpetuate the negative story.”"

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Central Bank Efforts May 'End in Tears': Pimco CEO El-Erian

Central Bank Efforts May 'End in Tears': Pimco CEO El-Erian: ""This is the most experimental we've ever seen central banking," he said during an interview on the "Squawk on the Street" program. "They are venturing deeper and deeper, using imperfect tools, and they're not getting the response they expect.""

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Central Bank Efforts May 'End in Tears': Pimco CEO El-Erian

Central Bank Efforts May 'End in Tears': Pimco CEO El-Erian:

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The F-35: Singapore’s next generation fighter? | TODAYonline

The F-35: Singapore’s next generation fighter? | TODAYonline:

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'Pay Your Fair Share,' Australia Tells Google, Apple

'Pay Your Fair Share,' Australia Tells Google, Apple: "As a matter of principle,taxpayers, whether they're companies or individuals, should pay their proper rate of tax," Gillard said. "This is an ongoing discussion at an international level.""

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Pimco's Bill Gross Looks at the Man in the Mirror

Pimco's Bill Gross Looks at the Man in the Mirror: "But let me admit something. There is not a Bond King or a Stock King or an Investor Sovereign alive that can claim title to a throne. All of us, even the old guys like Buffett, Soros, Fuss, yeah – me too, have cut our teeth during perhaps a most advantageous period of time, the most attractive epoch, that an investor could experience."

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Gross Says Buffett to Soros Careers Fueled by Expansion - Bloomberg

Gross Says Buffett to Soros Careers Fueled by Expansion - Bloomberg:

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The IMF Shouldn’t Abandon Austerity - Bloomberg

The IMF Shouldn’t Abandon Austerity - Bloomberg:

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Growth in Singapore Housing Prices Slows in First Quarter

Growth in Singapore Housing Prices Slows in First Quarter:

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Hong Kong Businesses Vanish as Rents Soar: Real Estate - Bloomberg

Hong Kong Businesses Vanish as Rents Soar: Real Estate - Bloomberg: "Over the past decade, car-repair shop owner Benny Chan has seen more than 70 percent of his small-business peers disappear as his Hong Kong neighborhood fills up with high-end Western bars and Japanese restaurants.
“Rents here are going up multiple times,” said Chan, who’s been in business since 1985 in the Tai Hang area, just east of the ritzy Causeway Bay shopping district. “We’ll all be out of here in the next four to five years.”"

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Mazda 6 Adds Skateboarder Zip to Stodgy Midsize Market - Bloomberg

Mazda 6 Adds Skateboarder Zip to Stodgy Midsize Market - Bloomberg:

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US F-22 Stealth Jets Join South Korea Drills Amid Sabre-Rattling

US F-22 Stealth Jets Join South Korea Drills Amid Sabre-Rattling: "(North Korea) will achieve nothing by threats or provocations, which will only further isolate North Korea and undermine international efforts to ensure peace and stability in Northeast Asia,""

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Lessons From China's Rooftops: Tamminen

Lessons From China's Rooftops: Tamminen: "Suntech defaulted on over half a billion dollars in government loans, a figure similar to the Solyndra losses for American taxpayers. There are numerous reasons for both of these failures, but chief among them was the fact that risk-free money resulted in both firms over-building their capacity ahead of market demand, driving down margins and ending any chance to make profits and repay loans."

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What Is China’s Top Fund Manager Up To?

What Is China’s Top Fund Manager Up To?: "Wang looks for stocks that are overlooked by investors rather than playing the bandwagon approach. In particular, he has leaned toward underappreciated mini- to small-caps of late."

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Gains in Nikkei – You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Gains in Nikkei – You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet: ""This [Abenomics] is for real – take it seriously – for the first time every information source that I have in Japan, after living there for 26 years, is in agreement. The Japanese, this is their defining moment. If they are going to save themselves from obscurity and failure, this is the time," Rogers told CNBC, referring to Prime Minster Shinzo Abe's push for aggressive monetary easing to beat deflation and drive growth in the economy.

"Since the earthquake in 2011, I don't think people externally understand the amount of soul searching that has gone on in Japan trying to figure out how to solve these problems of 20 years of deflation," Rogers added"


"We are seeing the early green shoots of this [yen weakness] beginning to come to fruition. dollar-yen at 110 will cause the green shoots to show up – we will see import substitution, export volume growth, business fixed investment pick-up, wages rise, and employment rises," 
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Ssshh! Why Japan Is Keeping Quiet on the Yen

Ssshh! Why Japan Is Keeping Quiet on the Yen: "Japan watchers give two possible reasons for this silence. It could be because of heightened international criticism over Japan's verbal intervention to weaken the yen and second the policymakers may be waiting to see what impact the currency's rapid weakening is having on the economy."

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Hyundai Courts Brand Prestige With Hermes Model Makeover

Hyundai Courts Brand Prestige With Hermes Model Makeover: ""You cannot offer upmarket prestige with a downmarket brand no matter how fancy you make it," Trout said."

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Could China Outpace the US in the Green Race?

Could China Outpace the US in the Green Race?: " China is marshaling its massive financial resources. The country's twelfth five year plan has recognized the dangers of environmentally damaging growth and the government has committed $290 billion in clean energy investments. "

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S’pore stocks flat; brokers bullish on Keppel Corp | TODAYonline

S’pore stocks flat; brokers bullish on Keppel Corp | TODAYonline:

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Google Street View captures Fukushima ‘ghost town’ | TODAYonline

Google Street View captures Fukushima ‘ghost town’ | TODAYonline:

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The lessons a teacher can learn | TODAYonline

The lessons a teacher can learn | TODAYonline: "My pupils taught me that what they need are listening ears and teachers to be patient, to talk with them, learn with them and from them. They taught me that despite their disadvantaged backgrounds, they would one day arrive somewhere if they persevered"

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12 motor vehicle traders fined for bid-rigging | TODAYonline

12 motor vehicle traders fined for bid-rigging | TODAYonline:

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Chinese Bank Stocks Dumped on Tighter Regulations

Chinese Bank Stocks Dumped on Tighter Regulations:

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After the Dire Data, Singapore Risks Another Contraction

After the Dire Data, Singapore Risks Another Contraction:

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Billionaire Modi Says Singapore’s Sex Drive Hinges on Housing - Bloomberg

Billionaire Modi Says Singapore’s Sex Drive Hinges on Housing - Bloomberg: "Modi says lowering the age to 25 would encourage sexual relationships and earlier marriages, helping to counter a slump in the birthrate that’s depriving the economy of workers."

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US (and Booming Market) Adds 300,000 New Millionaires

US (and Booming Market) Adds 300,000 New Millionaires: "The rising stock market has pushed America's millionaire population close to its all-time highs before the recession."

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Relax, China Creates a Cyprus Every Week: LSE Chief

Relax, China Creates a Cyprus Every Week: LSE Chief: " "We continue to believe that the euro will hold," he said. "Ultimately, it will strengthen, and more importantly, eventually the competitiveness issue, which is the core reason why the euro has been encountering all these issues, will be fixed, particularly thanks to German leadership.

"So, I think the medium- to long-term prognosis is a positive one.""

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Li Ka-Shing Sounds Warning Over Volatile Hong Kong Property

Li Ka-Shing Sounds Warning Over Volatile Hong Kong Property: "Look at your pocket first and don't take risks," Li said."

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Watch This Chart for a Selloff Warning: Video - Bloomberg

Watch This Chart for a Selloff Warning: Video - Bloomberg:

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BUFFETT video: Close up with the man and author of latest book

BUFFETT video: Close up with the man and author of latest book: ""Find your passion. I was very, very lucky to find it when I was seven or eight years old... You're lucky in life when you find it. And you can't guarantee you'll find it in your first job out. But I always tell college students that come out (to Omaha), 'Take the job you would take if you were independently wealthy. You're going to do well at it.'"
"

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ARA Asset Management Likely To Boost Assets Through Property Funds, Invezz Reports In A New Article | financialcontent

ARA Asset Management Likely To Boost Assets Through Property Funds, Invezz Reports In A New Article | financialcontent:

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Singapore REITs to Vary Funds on Interest Rates: Southeast Asia - Businessweek

Singapore REITs to Vary Funds on Interest Rates: Southeast Asia - Businessweek:

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Photojournalists on War: The Untold Stories from Iraq : Photojournalists on War - Bloomberg

Photojournalists on War: The Untold Stories from Iraq : Photojournalists on War - Bloomberg:

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China’s Solar Billionaire Undone as Banks Push Suntech to Brink - Bloomberg

China’s Solar Billionaire Undone as Banks Push Suntech to Brink - Bloomberg:

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Why Investors Should Jump Aboard China Shares

Why Investors Should Jump Aboard China Shares:

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Singapore REITs to Vary Funds on Interest Rates: Southeast Asia - Bloomberg

Singapore REITs to Vary Funds on Interest Rates: Southeast Asia - Bloomberg:

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COEs for big cars and Open Category tumble - Channel NewsAsia

COEs for big cars and Open Category tumble - Channel NewsAsia:

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Govt not making major changes to COE market in near-term: Lui Tuck Yew - Channel NewsAsia

Govt not making major changes to COE market in near-term: Lui Tuck Yew - Channel NewsAsia:

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ARA Asset Management Likely to Boost Assets through Property Funds

ARA Asset Management Likely to Boost Assets through Property Funds: "“Capital markets will continue to grow but I think there’s more potential for us on the private markets side,” Lim said. “If we continue to prove to the market that we can increase the assets under management, then the share price will continue to grow.”"

'via Blog this'

ARA Asset Management Likely to Boost Assets through Property Funds

ARA Asset Management Likely to Boost Assets through Property Funds:

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Nouriel Roubini: Brace for Market Correction Later This Year

Nouriel Roubini: Brace for Market Correction Later This Year:

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John Byrne, Geico CEO Buffett Cited for ‘Brilliance,’ Dies at 80 - Bloomberg

John Byrne, Geico CEO Buffett Cited for ‘Brilliance,’ Dies at 80 - Bloomberg:

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China's 'Ghost Cities' Warn of Property Bubble: Chanos

China's 'Ghost Cities' Warn of Property Bubble: Chanos:

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Stock Rally Will End Badly This Year: Marc Faber

Stock Rally Will End Badly This Year: Marc Faber:

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Why China's Property Market Is Getting Scary

Why China's Property Market Is Getting Scary:

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Dow Smashes Record: End of the 'Lost Decade'?

Dow Smashes Record: End of the 'Lost Decade'?:

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Marc Faber Warns: ‘Market Has Peaked Out’

Marc Faber Warns: ‘Market Has Peaked Out’: "There was a correction between March, April 2012 and actually June 2012, so we had a correction, and then from September onward, when the S&P reached 1,474, we also had a correction into November, at which stage I said that the market would now rally. So I don't think I've been so totally wrong about the moves of the market, especially since 2009, and I can document those with the performance of my portfolio.

"But I think that the market has now become quite overbought and that is very significant or overextended, bullish sentiment. Everybody says, 'Sell bonds, buy equities.' And when everybody thinks alike, one has to be careful.""

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Former Swiss Billionaire in Crisis to Sell Aston Martin - Bloomberg

Former Swiss Billionaire in Crisis to Sell Aston Martin - Bloomberg: "“For entrepreneurs who are invested in their own companies the risks are higher if their industry is most exposed to the downturn,” said Brown of the University of St. Gallen."

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Stocks Will Outperform Gold and Bonds .. and They're Safer 'By Far' Stocks Will Outperform Gold and Bonds .. and They're Safer 'By Far'

"A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops -- and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond."

As for "non-productive" assets, most notably gold, Buffett argues their "owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce — it will remain lifeless forever — but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future."

Marc Faber: Relax, Stocks Will Not Collapse

"My view is simply: relax. I don’t think that equities will collapse. I think we have major support going back to August 2010 when the S&P was at 1010," Faber said.

Just over a year later, the S&P briefly dropped to a low of 1074 on October 4, 2011, he said.

"We have a lot of support around 1100, and if the S&P drops 200 points, I guarantee you the Fed will come in with QE3 and QE4 and so forth," he said, referring to a next round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

The European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund would do the same, but indirectly, he said.

Pain makes me stronger, says Federer

“If I were buying anything I’d be buying agricultural commodities,” he says. “Going forward we’re going to have huge shortages of everything – including farmers – I think ag will be a great place for the next 10-20 years,” he says.

But don’t take that to mean that ag stocks are a buy – that’s not what Jim Rogers means.

Reformed rioter scores in N(A) levels

HE NEARLY threw his future away with his youthful folly.

But Jonathan Foo, 18, turned his life around and performed exceptionally well in this year's GCE N(A)-level examinations, scoring 10 points for five subjects.

It wasn't always like this for the Serangoon Gardens Secondary School student.

When he was in lower secondary, he was involved in gangs. By the time he was 15, he had been arrested and charged for rioting with a deadly weapon, leading to a month's stay at the Singapore Boys' Home.

Upon his release, he was under probation for 21 months. It was during this period that he decided to turn over a new leaf.

"I decided I had had my fun and now had to move on and be serious about life," said Jonathan.

While some of his friends slipped back to their bad ways, he stood his ground.

Despite having to retake his Secondary 3 and 4 exams due to poor results, Jonathan never gave up, and refused to disappoint those who had so much faith in him.

After receiving his results on Monday, he said: "I had hoped to do quite well, but it turned out better than I had expected."

And if there is one person he would attribute his success to, it would be his mother, whom he described as a strong, single parent.

"She is a sole breadwinner, housewife, mother," said Jonathan. "She always encouraged me, whether I was good or bad, and if I went astray, she always brought me back."

Mrs Chan Siew Eng, Jonathan's mathematics teacher, said he showed much perseverance and promise upon his return to school from the boys' home.

Having been in the teaching service for 28 years, she can tell if a student is serious about his work.

So when Jonathan sought her out for extra academic consultation, she always made time for him.

Mrs Chan said she had no clue what kept the boy going at first. Then it hit her.

After every single test, Jonathan would hurry her to return the scripts, saying he wanted to take them home to show his mother.

The New Paper went back with Jonathan to his home in Hougang, where he surprised his mother with his results. He received a big hug.

His mother, Madam Margaret Chun, 46, a real estate agent,said she was sad and disappointed when her son ran into problems in the past.

But she never once thought of him as a hopeless case.

"I always tell my children, no matter how bad they are, I will never give up on them," said Madam Chun, adding that Jonathan's sisters, Qian Bi, 20, and Wen Qi, 15, always stood by him too.

She was also grateful to the school for giving him a second chance and even going out of the way to help him.

"We must thank his school teachers, principal and discipline master," said Madam Chun.

"They always went the extra mile and were really more than teachers."

Jonathan, who will study for the O levels next year, said he regretted his past, but preferred to seeit as a learning journey.

The aspiring real estate agent had a piece of advice for troubled youth.

He said: "It's okay to be playful, just don't cross the line. Once you do, it's really hard to come back. I merely got lucky."

This article was first published in The New Paper.

"We're looking into next year at valuations which (are) at the bottom of their trading range," he said. “We've obviously seen a turnaround in policy in China to an easing stance, and it's an end to the policy tightening in India.

--Erwin Sanft, Deputy Head of Asian Equities Research at BNP Paribas

"I own the dollar, I own some other currencies as well," he said. "A year ago everybody was pessimistic about the dollar, including me…when everybody is on the same side of the boat, you go to the other side of the boat for a while

Rarity, complexity and condition make all the difference when looking for a luxury watch. But while there are major gains to be made, it takes a good eye to know the difference between a clever investment, and a waste of time.

"I think it’s important that you buy a watch which is in very good condition and is totally original, even if it’s a $2,000 watch. Quality is a key issue in this business, approximation is definitely forbidden."

He advised to look at the brand; even with contemporary watches, a good, established name will hold its value.

Paramico also gave his hint for a smart watch investment. For $5,000, he said a rose gold 1940 Patek Philippe with a square case is a good bet for the future.

We can't run away if we have done something wrong, we must have the courage to face it. Because what you do will harm your family, and it's not worth it."

'He told me, don't sell. The price will go up,' Mr Lim told The Straits Times. Mr Lim had words of advice from none other than former prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, who visited him in his flat in the early evening.

Small Caps Confirm Bullish Trend For Stocks

"In my research, I need to see all four indices move in the same direction..."All four indices have now structurally completed a base, and are projected to move higher. You're at the top of the range and three of the four closed above their resistance except for the Russell. If that doesn't close above it in the next couple of days, it could lead to a negative divergencey, and you'd have a sell off,I do think it's real. I do think we've started to see a turn here. I would not be surprised if we pulled back a bit, but this time dips should be purchased. We've been seeing signs for about a month now. October 4 was the key day. Things have really improved technically since then," LaRosa said earlier this week." said Paul LaRosa, chief market technician with Maxim Group .

Investing is not complex....you sit in cash until there is blood in the streets then you buy...trying to time the markets is to difficult because the little investors do not control the markets....

ARA ASSET MANAGEMENT’S EMPHASIS ON CORPORATE GOVERNANCE RECOGNIZED BY SIAS’ INAUGURAL “INTERNAL AUDIT EXCELLENCE AWARD”

“We believe that sound corporate governance policies and practices is the foundation for a trusted, successful, profitable and respected business organisation. As we work towards our long term objective of expanding the assets under management in both our REITs and private real estate funds across Asia, we seek to observe both the substance and spirit of the Corporate Governance Code while bearing in mind the Group’s specific business needs and the interests of all stakeholders.

I am pleased to say that our reputation as a well-managed firm with strong ethics and internal
controls forms a big part of our success in attracting institutions around the world to invest their monies with us, through both good and challenging times.”

*The best investment you can make is an investment in yourself.

* The more you learn, the more you’ll earn.

* Find something you enjoy doing and you’ll never work a day in your life.

*If people won't come to your business, bring your business to the people.

*treat every other people the way you want to be treated yourself.

Rodman Kills China Stocks Research

“Effective immediately, we are terminating coverage of the following companies to allocate resources more efficiently within our coverage universe. Upon termination of coverage, any of our prior projections should not be relied upon.”

The move comes after a dozens of Chinese stocks that trade in the U.S., many of them created through reverse mergers, have tumbled in the wake of accounting controversies that has sparked regulatory scrutiny.

"There's so many options on the table but what the market is reacting to is it appears that the message has gotten through — the first step to fixing a problem is realizing you have a problem," said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at RBS.

"This weekend is pretty interesting. The last time (Treasury Secretary Timothy) Geithner was in Europe, it didn't go too well. This time it's the finance ministers from Australia, Canada, South Africa. Everybody's saying something needs to be done," he said.

Markets Are Over Their Fears for Europe

Markets are over their fears that the worst will happen in the world economy as investors hope that Europe will finally find some solution to the slow-motion debt crisis that has been unfolding for the past year and a half, Wilbur Ross, WL Ross chairman and CEO, told CNBC

Return to Gold Standard? Why Price Would Hit $10,000

And if under this worst case scenario the solution was to return to the gold standard of the Nixon years, the price of bullion would be worth $10,000-plus, six-times the current price, according to Paul Brodsky, co-managing member of QB Asset Management company and a self-professed ‘Gold Bug.’

“The market was due for a rally on merit, however, the velocity of the rally is what we can blame on short covering,” said Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services. “We have merely gone from the lower end of a trading range to the upper end of that range.”

"We picked 1050 as our entry point. We never got to that point, but we also said if we got some favorable momentum or the dust settled in Europe, we could use it as an entry point...I don't know if today's action signifies a solving of Europe, but it's certainly a step in the right direction. So, I think earnings could also propel the market higher," said Harris Private Bank chief investment officer Jack Ablin

"We do think we've seen the low for the year but can't be as confident it's the low for the next 12 months," Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Andrew Burkly said in a quick note. "The can looks to be kicked at least past year end and earnings should be good."

“I always go back to famous statements that people like Buffet and the Rothschilds have made about buying when there's blood on the streets,” Joshua Crabb, Director & Portfolio Manager, Asia Equities at investment firm BlackRock told CNBC on Monday. “Being greedy when others are fearful.”

“We're seeing a lot of value starting to develop now… Sometimes in the short run you have to wear a little bit of pain, but that's how you make the long returns,” says Crabb.

"This is critical, this is the most important data that we have seen this cycle," says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in a Reuters interview. "This is going to get people's attention."

"This confirms that most of the negativity we have seen in the market is derived from the market itself and not the data," he adds.

"There is quite a lot of value appearing now [in the markets], after the rout of the last quarter. However, that in itself does not mean markets are going to go up," Lucy MacDonald, CIO of equities at RCM, told CNBC.

"If money doesn't loosen up, this sucker could go down."

I've never criticized -- in fact, I've recommended companies buy their stock when it's selling below what I call "intrinsic business value." In our particular case, not true for most companies, practically all companies, but book value happens to be an understated measure of value, but one that, in a way, is a pretty good tracking device. And I use this figure of 110 percent of book as being the limit because I know that that price is demonstrably less than the businesses are worth.

If I can buy dollar bills for 90 cents, I'll buy them. I want to warn the people that are selling to me that I believe I am buying their dollar bills for 90 cents because they're our partner. So, I give them notice first. And then if they want to sell me dollar bills cheap -- any of you want to do it, I'm here.

"Policymakers are in control today and they are driving this car very erratically; they’re not even telling you what the destination is, especially in Europe; and instead of looking through the windscreen, they’re arguing among each other. It feels really volatile and unsettling,Pimco CEO Mohammed El-Erian told CNBC

"We are coming out of this one, I am virtually certain. I see figures on 70-some companies daily. I have a lot of information coming in and basically everything to do with home construction is as bad as it has ever been, and everything else is getting better."

"People talk of de-risking from equities to bonds, I would argue at the moment de-risking is moving from bonds which are in bubble territory into equities… they look good value,"Even if you want to stay in Asia, the stories of dividends remain very strong stories in China, in Asia things like utilities, things like telecom companies in China, where dividend yields look very rich are attractive to us… we think those will help you weather the storm as we come through this crisis" Nick Lyster, CEO of Principle Global Investors told CNBC.

Asian Stocks Could Slump Up to 40% in Worst Case Scenario

"I think a lot of people don't realize that if the whole situation in Europe blows up, it will affect bank lending globally," Tay explained. "In Asia's case, for instance, out of $100 in foreign lending, $50 is actually provided by the European banks, so if the European banks have to actually recapitalize, then you have the problem with the short-term interest rates actually moving up."

Have no doubt, there will be lots of opportunities down the road to buy good companies at cheap prices. If you do so today, you are betting that markets can escape decisively the grips of both bad macro and bad technicals. This is not a call on companies. It is about policymaking in Athens, Berlin, Frankfurt, Rome, and Washington DC.

"I've got all the money I'll ever need if I die by four o'clock this afternoon." —Henry Youngman.

“Our base-case forecast continues to be that the US economy will avoid a recession, though the risks are high and rising,“While we do not think limited policy options would mean a deeper recession, they would likely imply a more tepid rebound. Whatever the outcome, a U.S. recession today would be painful.”” wrote Zach Pandl,

"The cheaper it is, the more aggressive, generally, we will be buying. It's just like any other stock."

Warren Buffett Buying Stock Bargains with U.S. Recession 'Very, Very Unlikely'

"There will be a reversal…this is just a correction in an ongoing bull market,” Mobius told CNBC.com on Wednesday.

After all this turmoil is over you’re going to see people moving back into these countries, many people haven’t left (and) you’ll see more and more people coming in,” he added.

But, Mobius says that once the economic mayhem in Europe is over, there is a risk of hot money pouring back into the region, similar to what happened in 2008 during recent the global financial crisis.

Europe has a few bad, bankrupt states, so does America. We've got Illinois which is bigger than Greece, we've got California, we've got New York, you know those are pretty big states that have serious economic problems. We have pension plans in America that are terribly under water," Rogers told CNBC on Tuesday.

According to Rogers, the U.S. has deeper structural problems than Europe as well as higher debt levels.

"Europe's got some bad problems but the entity as a whole is not nearly as deep in debt as the U.S. They don't have a huge balance of trade deficit, like we do," Rogers said.

Gold and other real assets are not immune from global sell-offs, and this is a textbook example we are seeing now," said Bayram Dincer, an analyst at LGT Capital Management.

"If you want to draw an analogy, look at 2008, when the Lehman fall saw gold collapsing around $250. The markets are in this 2008, global post-Lehman sell-off mode."

"And by announcing, it was self-defeating. I mean, the stock went up. And there are times when I've— would have liked to have bought a significant percentage of Berkshire in the market because I thought it was— it would have been— increased the per-share value of the remaining shares.

If I'm going to buy you out in order to benefit Joe and me, I want to tell you first that I think I'm buying you out cheap. Now, if you still want to sell to me, you know, that's fine and you've been warned and— but the very act of me telling you that, particularly in a stock like Berkshire, is probably going to make the whole exercise self-defeating. It certainly did a couple of years ago. So it isn't much of a tool for us. I think it's a great thing to do if your stock is selling well below intrinsic value."

"The repurchase program is expected to continue indefinitely and the amount of purchases will depend entirely upon the levels of cash available, the attractiveness of investment and business opportunities either at hand or on the horizon, and the degree of discount from management’s estimate of intrinsic value."

John Lim, co-founder and Group CEO of ARA: "We are not like equity fund managers. We don't have redemption issues."

"During the financial crisis when property values collapsed, we grew our AUM. Between 2007-2010, our AUM grew."

Anthony Ang, CEO, Fortune REIT: "Our suburban malls in HK enjoy most stable income and are resilient even in economic downturns."

Euro Debt Crisis Is Worse Than US in 2008: George Soros

"The European crisis is more serious than the crisis of 2008," Soros said in an appearance at the meeting here of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. "The authority needed (in 2008) was in place."

ARA ASSET: Resilient Earnings, Super-High Profit Margins, Steady Dividends

ARA Asset Management is a billion-dollar company listed on the Singapore Exchange. Especially in turbulent market conditions such as currently, stocks like ARA get noticed by investors searching for businesses that are resilient and offer decent dividend yields.

NextInsight met up with ARA’s management as well as attended a presentation by its Group CEO recently to come to grips with its business model – it’s unique and powerful. To begin with, its strategic partner is Cheung Kong Group of Hong Kong whose boss is, of course, Li Ka Shing. Having the region's largest real estate developer as a substantial shareholder gives it access to a critical mass of real estate assets. Other barriers to entry include its track record, which is what regulators look at, the network and knowhow in real estate...

1. What is ARA’s business?

Founded in 2002 as a joint venture between ARA Group's CEO, John Lim, and the Cheung Kong group, ARA has grown to become one of the largest real estate fund managers in Asia. It deals only with physical real estate, not equity.

The assets under management amount to S$18.8 billion as at end-June this year. It takes pride being an Asian manager focusing on Asian assets and attracting global capital.

ARA manages 6 REITs - Fortune (SGX and HK-listed), SUNTEC and Cache Logistics Trust (SGX-listed), Prosperity and Hui Xian (HK-listed), and AmFirst (KLSE-listed).

Its portfolio of assets spans every sector -- office, retail, industrial/office and logistics - as well as private real estate funds investing in real estate in Asia.
There are also supporting services that it also owns (more on this later).

2. How does ARA generate revenue?

ARA is well diversified with 5 revenue streams – REIT management fees, private real estate fund management fees, real estate management fees, acquisition and performance fees as well as distribution and other income.

REIT management

A REIT manager’s income increases with the number of buildings held under the REIT. REIT managers’ base fees are a percentage of gross property value (assets under management) and net property income.

For example, ARA collects 0.3% of Fortune REIT’s gross property value and 3% of its net property income. Fees may be marginally higher or lower from REIT to REIT.
According to John Lim, the CEO, about US$500 million in assets under management for a REIT manager is the break-even point.

Beyond that, the margins of the REIT manager grow rapidly because of economies of scale and operating leverage.

REIT management fees accounted for 51.4% of ARA’s 1H2011 revenues

Private real estate fund management

Other than REIT management fees, ARA derives significant management fees from its private real estate funds, which has attracted top-notch American pension funds such as Calpers.

While REITS hold stable mature real estate with over 90% of its space leased out, private real estate funds typically invest in newly completed properties, properties under development, turnaround properties and distressed real estate.

ARA derives management fees for these funds based either on investors’ committed capital or gross property value. Such fees accounted for 21.8% of ARA’s 1H2011 revenues.

Real estate management services

At this point, it is useful to bear in mind that ARA derived 73.2% of its 1H revenue from managing REITS and private funds. ARA has two other business segments that provide supporting services to its core businesses.

One of these is real estate management services such as property management and convention and exhibition services. This segment belongs to the more traditional realm where, for example, it handles the human resources necessary for building maintenance and space leasing.

This is obviously a less scalable business but it complements the core business units of the group. Its real estate management service segment employs about 500 even though the segment contributed only 11.7% to 1H2011 revenues.

Corporate finance advisory

ARA Financial Pte Ltd is the Group’s in-house corporate finance advisory arm that provides advisory services on asset acquisitions to the REITs managed by the Group and advises the Group on the establishment of REITs, partnerships and joint ventures as well as mergers and acquisitions.

3. Is this a unique business model?

Yes. It is the only one of its kind on the Singapore Exchange - in fact, the whole of Asia. It is highly scalable, resulting in greater profits as it expands its assets under management. And its net profit margin is very attractive.

4. What kind of profit margins does such a business generate?
The Group’s 1H2011 net profit margins were 56.3%. It has consistently exceeded its internal net profit margin target of 50% since listing in 2007. It is one of a very few listed companies anywhere that can enjoy such lucrative margins.
5. What else is attractive about investing in ARA?

Resilient earnings model
ARA is one of the region’s largest real estate fund managers with a very well diversified portfolio of physical buildings.

In 1H2011, 85% of its revenue are from recurring income derived from REIT, private real estate fund and real estate management fees.

This is augmented by performance fees. For example in Aug, it announced the divestment of the interests of the private investors in the ARA Harmony Fund.

The ARA Harmony Fund is a private real estate fund established by ARA in September 2009 to acquire the Suntec Singapore International Convention & Exhibition Centre and had achieved an IRR of 64.8%.

For such an instance of fantastic performance, ARA is receiving a whopping one-off income of over S$10 million in 3Q2011 of performance fees for crossing its hurdle rate.

Its unique business model gives investors, who are less risk-averse, the desirables such as resilient fee-based income model and consistent dividends even in uncertain economic times. As John Lim said: "We are not like equity fund managers. We don't have redemption issues."

Even in an economic downturn, it can increase its AUM by setting up a property fund for distressed assets. And ARA has proven to be innovative, having launched the Hui Xian REIT in Hong Kong in April this year, the world's first offshore RMB-denominated equity offering.

Rapid growth

Its AUM has grown by a CAGR of 61% since incorporation in 2002, rising to S$18.8 billion as of Jun 2011.

REIT management is a highly scalable business as the same manager can manage all the physical assets in the REIT portfolio.

For example, FORTUNE REIT does not need to hire another manager when a new mall is added to its portfolio of malls.
Strong balance sheet

Its balance sheet is as clean as can be. It is debt-free, and has cash of S$40.0 million.

Consistent Dividends

ARA paid out dividends of 4.8 cents a share per annum in FY09 and FY10. On top of that, it had a 1-for-5 bonus issue and a 1-for-10 bonus issue in those years, which effectively raised the dividend payout by 32%. Based on its recent stock price of S$1.345, it dividend yield is 3.6%.

Powerful strategic partner

The Cheung Kong Group of companies, with its worldwide presence of over a quarter of a million employees, combined market cap of HK$865 billion (as at Jun) and shareholding interest in ARA as well as the REITS means ARA has a very powerful strategic partner.
6. What are the roles of its other business segments?
The role of the REIT manager is to obtain financing for acquisition, capital management of the trust, engage in asset enhancement activities such as increasing traffic and source for new real estate assets that the trust may acquire.

Unlike the REIT manager or the real estate fund manager, a real estate manager handles the human resources necessary for building maintenance and space leasing.

With its corporate finance advisory arm, the entire supply chain of the real estate management business is taken in-house.

What makes things happen in ARA, in the words of Fortune REIT CEO Anthony Ang: “John Lim is a very creative person. He is very focused and persistent. When he gives you a task, he doesn’t forget and constantly reminds you about it. When he sees an opportunity, he goes for it.”

ARA’s personnel are from 16 to 17 nationalities. Over the past 5 years, ARA has experienced an influx of senior people from leading organizations like Merrill Lynch, GIC, DBS, Ascendas and Mapletree.

It prides itself on its corporate culture, which is neatly summarized by the acronym REIT - Respect, Excellence, Integrity, Teamwork:

RESPECT - Treat our colleagues and business partners with consideration and respect at all times.

EXCELLENCE – Excel not just in financial performance, but in every aspect. We do not cut corners and always put our customers first.

INTEGRITY – Integrity is a commitment to honor the trust placed on us. We abide by a strong code of ethics and uphold the highest standards of professional conduct.
TEAMWORK – We constantly support each other and build an environment that values the team player, while working creatively, and performing to our best potential.

--NextInsight

“There are some symptoms of a bubble building in China, with the increase in foreign exchange reserves, rapidly rising property prices,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “From here on, the China economy will slow down regardless. Whether it will crash this year or later, I don’t know.

There still seems to be a large gap between what economists and markets say is needed - and politicians are able to provide. ”


Stephanie Flanders
Economics editor, BBC News

Are You the Dumb Money?

In the hit comedy, Dumb and Dumber, Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels play two guys that are so utterly moronic, that their inanity actually becomes their best asset. Without knowing it, their stupidity guides them past unperceived dangers and smack dab into the middle of unsuspecting success.

If only life worked so charmingly. But in the cold world of Wall Street, the dumb are preyed upon, while the dumber quickly become extinct. Not only is this true, it is actually celebrated as fact by financial mavens and the media alike who have captured this ethos through their invention of the terms smart and dumb money.

[See In Pictures: 20 Funds That Have Weathered Downturns.]

In closed-door discussions from the venture capital industry, through the hedge fund industry, past leveraged buy outs and all the way to traders of simple stocks and bonds, those in the know whimsically discuss what the smart money is doing to get rich, and of course, how the dumb money is helping them get there.

And in the event that you are late to the conversation, in their mind at least, you may be the dumb money. More specifically, the dumb money is the individual investor who watches CNBC for stock tips. It is the investor that gets a hunch, or better yet, at stock tip from a friend and acts upon it. The dumb money is the lemming like masses that plunge off the bluff and into the sea when despair is on tap, and double down on their investment when a sector is running hot.

Like the ocean tides that move in and out with shocking continuity, the pros believe the dumb money to be so predictable, that these hawks consider it a contrary indicator of what the markets are about to do. When the dumb money is rushing madly into gold, the smart money starts writing shorts. When the dumb money is sure that the S&P 500 is dog meat and is running for the door, the smart money grins and starts moving in

Fear, Greed and the Dumb Cycle

Dumb investors get caught in a dumb cycle--buying high and selling low. As ridiculous as this behavior sounds, a closer look reveals how the strong emotions of fear and greed can drive even the most determined investor towards this sadly dim-witted behavior.

In any intellectual exercise, like a crossword puzzle, knowledge wins. But in the real world, behavioral scientists have demonstrated that a primal need for rewards and security give tremendous platform to the emotions of both fear and greed.

To understand the dumb cycle, you simply need to understand the role of fear and greed in driving investment decisions. When an investment is returning nicely, the greed gland kicks into overdrive commanding us to buy more of what is working. The investor then sells his poorly performing asset classes and buys more of his winning investment. Likewise, when all hell breaks loose, the fear gland begins to repetitiously squawk like a malfunctioning fire alarm within the investor's mind. Sell, sell, sell is it commanding instructions. Run for the door.

A simple analysis of inflows and outflows of capital to and from the mutual fund industry easily illustrates this point. In 2000, the dot-com hysteria had people so frothy that they were dipping into their home equity lines to double down on the new gold rush. The NASDAQ ran up to 5,000 and had a one-year return of a shocking 80%. The greed gland was pumping out its buy commands and the masses were moving in perfect harmony. Then, by the fall of 2002, the NASDAQ party came to a crashing halt, plummeting quickly to half it value. Fear was the order of the day and as money rushed out of tech, it moved quickly into bonds that predictably were at a record high. The dumb cycle was complete.

[See In Pictures: 5 Ways to Measure Investment Risk.]

You Don't Have to Be Dumb

Although Wall Street might look at you as the dumb money, you can in fact become the smartest money of all. To overthrow fear and greed's reign of terror, the smart investor must develop principles and policies that will usurp the primal impulses that otherwise lead inevitably to the investment funny farm.

By rooting your portfolio management in highly researched and scientifically demonstrated principles of global asset allocation, disciplined rebalancing and especially staying the course when others are loosing their cool, you become a member of the smart money club.

In seasons of wild market swings, investing takes faith--faith that stocks will do better than bonds, and that bonds will do better than cash, just like they always have. It requires faith that via diversified participation in the global free market, you will benefit from the rigors of millions of workers and thousands of companies striving daily to do well.

While Dumb and Dumber provides a great laugh on the sliver screen, being the smart money provides the best laugh of all.

http://money.usnews.com/

Is HP's board the worst ever?

Apotheker's messy firing is a mirror of his messy hiring. HP came under fire last September for the surprising choice: Apotheker was ousted less than a year into his CEO gig at software giant SAP (SAP), which is struggling to hold its market share against onslaughts from Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) and IBM (IBM, Fortune 500). Apotheker had no experience in hardware, the business that drives most of HP's revenue

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Moody's 'Out of Its Mind

"That is so absurd I can't believe anyone would even write it. This is the largest bank in the United States," said Bove of Bank of America. "It has business with one out of every five households in the country. The assumption is that the United States government would allow this bank to go under and pull all of those other people under with it!"

"In my view, I think Moody's has lost its mind," said Bove, known for his outspoken views.

"Bank of America is in a position where it is shrinking and paying off its borrowings. If you take a look a the total amount of cash on its balance sheet versus the total amount of longer term debt on its balance sheet, bank of America has enough money to pay off every dime of short-term debt tomorrow," he said. He noted Bank of America has $140 billion in cash, while its short term debt and trading obligations total $125 billion.

"Basically you can't run this company out of business," Bove said. Bove said Bank of America could solve ties problems if it were to put its Countrywide mortgage business it acquired into bankruptcy.

If Bank of America went under, basically it has to call all the loans it has—$940 billion in loans outstanding. In addition, it has $1.38 trillion in deposits. You think the FDIC can cover that?...The idea that the U.S. government would allow it to fail is beyond the realm of possibilities," Bove said.

Gold Gains Ground with Wealthy Individuals

During a presentation by the World Gold Council at this meeting of wealthy private individuals and their representatives, it was asked how many in the room had either bought gold for the first time or increased their position in the last two years.

Eighty percent raised their hands.

Investors Must Take 'Leap of Faith'

"Good companies that produce good results will be rewarded in the marketplace, and you just have to work a little harder to find them and maybe have a little more patience," he said. "I think the 'short-termism' has spooked a lot of people."

--Robert Doll, BlackRock chief equity strategist

"Five years ago, less than 5 percent of Chinese card users used revolving credit. Now, in 2011, about 15 percent of card users, mostly the younger adults, are using revolving credit. This is becoming a trend in China and this will gradually change the income structure of card issuers who need to adapt as well,Driven by rising consumption and market penetration, credit card receivables have been growing at close to triple-digit rates in the past five years," said Huang

We forecast the mortgage market to grow from 6 trillion yuan to 15.5 trillion yuan during the period 2010 to 2015, given that many Chinese consumers believe that owning their residence is essential to having a stable family and that houses have a relatively high cost," said Richard Huang, partner and managing director at BCG.

“Everyone loves a sale, and investors rarely overlook stock market bargains,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P, said in a research note. “So at the end of each quarter when stocks yielded more than bonds, investors have typically gone on a buying spree and have rarely been disappointed.”

Gold is heading into the $2,000's

"Gold is headed higher," Lee says. "Gold is a great call. We don't think it's speculative at these current levels." Discounting for inflation Lee sees the most precious of metals heading into the $2,000's.
His view gets slightly more bullish, at least for a trade. "Historically the last move up on a commodity based rally is a parabolic move." Are we entering that portion of the gold rally now? Hard to say. Gold has moved away from it's trendline and moving average but hasn't done anything resembling the spectacular spike silver made in April. Since gold's rally started, notes Lee, gold has repeatedly tested its uptrends and moving averages and held every time, leading to ever rising moves. Lee isn't betting against it happening again.

First of all you cannot predict macroeconomic issues and factors because there are too many complex variables involved. Secondly, even if you could predict the complex variables, you cannot predict the precise effect it would have on the stock market.

"I think that over the long term there will be a strong appreciation of diamond prices based on increasing luxury demand from India, China and the Pacific Rim," said industry expert Rapaport, adding that a weak dollar would also increase diamonds' appeal as a safe haven for investors.

'Incredible Opportunities' for Investors Right Now

"Fundamentals are not playing into valuations now at all. You've got great companies that are trading horribly, you've got pretty junky companies that are way overvalued," said the president and founder of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group. "For the first time in three and a half years, I think you can begin to invest fundamentallyand make money." "It's going to be very difficult to make money in the big banks. They're so laden with regulatory issues, unquantifiable legal issues, and lack of growth," she said. "Best case, they're atrophying. Worst case, they're forced to shrink drastically."

Diversify your portfolio now

moment. the question of the day, have the u.s. markets which are holding up relatively well in world terms, priced in the european debt crisis? joining us now to discuss that and more, david kelly and mark matson. welcome to you both. david, let me ask you a different kind of question. would it really be so bad if greece defaulted? we've had defaults before of sovereign nations. yes, it would in this situation because the problem is that greece is part of a fixed currency regime. if this was a small independent, small open economy, it defaults, the currency collapses. it goes down 30% or 40%, they become more competitive, they work their way out of it, not a big deal. and also not many countries would have a huge investment in that country. but in this situation, a lot of banks around europe are complaining of greek debt on their books. they don't have the opportunity of devaluing their currency. the question is if greece goes who recollects's next? all those things make a greek default extremely perspective. mark, he makes very interesting points here. the interconnectedness question, the domino effect that might eventuate. it is part of a unified currency. what do you say? the original question is, have markets already priced it in? i would make the argument that markets are extremely efficient. all the market participants have known for over a year that greece was potentially at risk. there's been 73 defaults in the last 100 years. most of this is already priced into the system because markets are efficient. my message to investors are, you have to stay diversified. you should be looking at this as a short-term opportunity to buy more european equities, buy more u.s. equities, rebalance your portfolio. but in reality, most people buy high, sell low and repeat until they're broke. we need to be prudent and diversify right now. david, do you agree? is it priced in right now and is it inevitable? well, we have priced in all but armageddon as far as i can tell. if you look at u.s. stocks and u.s. treasuries, stocks are cheaper to treasuries today than they've been at any time the last 50 years. to me, that means we have priced in a lot of bad stuff. it is not inevitable. that's what's so frustrating about this. what we have is incompetent policymakers, to my mind n dealing with this problem. we need to have fiscal transfers. if you have a currency -- for example, if greece was new mexico, then the rest of europe would be paying for half of greece's government spending because within a currency unit, you've got a single country, usually these fiscal transfers are going on. but greece is a poor nation, it has a lot of problems. it would be much cheaper for the rest of europe to dig into its pockets, transfer money into greece, help them grow their economy. that's a much cheaper solution than try to use austerity, everybody's on their own and expect it to work in a currency union. it's not inevitable. but unless we get more intelligent policies coming from europe --

President Obama on Jobs Bill

ou can see the president. there's the president. he's here's the president of the united states. please, everybody, have a seat on this beautiful morning. it's wonderful to see all of you here. on thursday i told congress that i'll be sending them a bill called the american jobs act. well, here it is. this is a bill that will put people back to work all across the koircountry. this is a bill that will help our economy in a moment of national crisis. this is a bill that is based on ideas from both democrats and republicans. no games, no politics, no delays. i'm sending this bill to congress today. and they ought to pass it immediately. standing with me this morning are men and women who will be helped by the american jobs act. i'm standing with teachers. all across america, teacher are being laid off in droves. it is unfair to our kids and undermines our future and it is exactly what we shouldn't be doing if we want our kids to be college ready and then prepared for the jobs of the 21st century. we've got to get our teachers back to work. i'm standing here with veterans. we've got hundreds and thousands of bra of brave, skilled americans who fought for this country. the last thing they should have to do is fight for it when they come home. let's pass this bill who put the men and women who serve this nation back to work. we're standing here with cops and firefighters. these men and women can continue protecting our neighborhoods like they do every single day. i'm standing with construction workers. we've got roads that need work all over the country. our highways are backed up with traffic. our airports are clogged and there are millions of unemployed construction workers who can rebuild them. let's pass this bill so workers and road diggers and pavers can hid back to the job site. there is plenty of work to do that this jobs bill will help them do it. let's put them back to work and pass this bill of rebuilding america. we cannot -- we have an amen over there. we cannot expect our kids to do their best in places that are litter lie falling apart. this is america. every kid deserves a great school. i'm standing here with small business owners. they know that while corporate profits have come roaring back, a lot of small businesses haven't. they are still struggling, getting the capital that they need, getting the support that they need in order to grow. so this bill cuts taxes for small businesses that hire new employees and for small businesses that raise salaries for current employees. and we can do that by passing this bill. there are a lot of other ways that this jobs bill, the american's job act will help this economy. it's got a $4,000 tax credit for companies that hire anybody who spent more than six months looking for a job. there is temporary work to help upgrade their skills. this bill will help hundreds and thousands of people find summer jobs next year. a job that will help reset the direction for their entire lives and the american's jobs act will help families. if congress does not act, just about every single family will pay more taxes next year. that would be a self-inflicted wound that our economy cannot afford right now. so let's pass this bill and give the typical working family a $1500 tax cut instead. and the americans jobs act is not going to add to the debt. it's fully paid for. i want to repeat that. it's fully paid for. and not only will bring the deficit further, it's a plan that lives by the same rule that families do. we have to cut out things that we can afford to do in order to afford the things that we really need. it's a plan that says everybody, including wealthy americans and biggest corporations have to pay their fair share. so we have to decide what our priorities are. do we put teachers back to work? do we keep tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires or should we invest in education and technology and infrastructure, all of the things that are going to help us not innovate and not build other countries in the future. we know what's right. we know what will help businesses start right here and stay here and hire here. we know that if we take the steps outlined in this jobs plan, there's no reason that we can't be selling more goods all around the world that are stamped with those three words. made in america. that's what we need to do. create jobs right now. in fact, joe and i as we were walking out here, we were looking at the washington newspapers and quoting a republican aide saying, i don't know why we want to cooperate with obama right now. it's not good for our politics. it was very explicit. that's the attitude in this town. yeah, we've been with these things before but i don't know why we would be for them right now. and the fact of the matter is, the next election is 14 months away. the american people don't have the luxury of waiting 14 months for congress to take action. people are living paycheck to paycheck and they need action and the notion that there are folks who would say, we are not going to try to do what is right for the american people because we don't think it's convenient for our politics, we've been seeing that too much around here. and that's okay when you play politics. it's not okay when there is great urgency and need all across the country. these are not games that we're playing out here. folks are out of work. businesses are having trouble staying open. and in europe, the middle east, some events may be beyond our control. there is something that we can control. whether we not -- whether or not we pass this bill that's something that we can control. that's in our hands and this is something that we can avoid by going ahead and taking action to make sure that we're helping the american people. so if you agree with me, if you want congress to take action, then i'm going to need everybody here and everybody watching to make sure that their voices are heard and made. its ideas are commonsense and will make a difference. that's not just my opinion, independent economists and validaters have said, this could add a significant amount to our gross domestic product and put people to work all across the country. so the only thing stopping it is the politics. and we can't afford these political games. i want you to pick up the phone and send an e-mail. airplane sky riders. dust off the fax machine. or you can just like write a letter. so long as you get the message to congress. send me the american jobs act. let's put everybody back to work. thank you very much. god bless. welcome to the call.

Gold still strong across the board

"I think what we're seeing is continued strong interest in gold across the board," Nicholas Brooks, Head of Research and Investment Strategy at ETF Securities told CNBC. He added this was the case in futures, ETCs and physical market, but conceded the latter is less strong as "with jewelry demand there's a bit of a lag behind the price," adding: "Jewelry is another form of investment."

Dow Could Crash to 3,000 in 2013

"I think the stock crash started in late April. This is just the first wave down...I think the crash really starts some time in early 2012," said the Founder and CEO of economic research company HS Dent and author of upcoming book "The Great Crash Ahead".

Three Litmus Tests for Chinese Listings in the US

"I've been investing in China for the last 10 years and there's one thing I've learnt - with many Chinese companies there are usually two sets of books, and whenever there are two sets of books, there are usually three," Eric Rosenkranz, Chairman and Founder of strategy consulting firm E.Three and a former Vice Chairman of Focus Media China

$5.3M Dinners with Warren Buffett Lead to Dream Job for Money Manager

"I very much wanted him to do it, but I didn't expect to get very far with the idea. Ted will no doubt make a lot of money at Berkshire. But he was already making a lot of money with his fund -- you can get an idea of that from the size of his Glide bids -- so money wasn't a reason for him to come."

I don’t know where the rumours started...part of the problem is...when speculation starts... in a market that has a lot of emotions...and then people are concerned about the volatility...then people will sell first and ask questions later...and that creates its own momentum.
--On Wednesday, March 12, CNBC interviewed Alan D. Schwartz, chief executive of Bear Stearns, about rumors that the firm has liquidity problems.

"Today's sentence is a measure of justice for the thousands of people who lost their jobs and millions of dollars in investments when Enron collapsed under the weight of the fraud perpetrated by the company's top executives," said Assistant Attorney General Fisher in a statement. "Jeffrey Skilling will now spend more than 24 years in prison for committing one of the largest frauds in the history of corporate America.

Lehman Brothers

Lehman was forced into bankruptcy not because it neglected to act responsibly."

There was "nothing, nothing" in Lehman's books that signaled it might go bankrupt.

We did have too much in commercial real estate (around $50 billion). We brought that down to $30 billion."

No, really, there was nothing wrong with Lehman's books. Lehman did not need a bailout. It needed liquidity. "I understand all the noise about crisis and bailout and failure and whatever. Lehman needed liquidity," he said at one point.

And later: “There was no capital hole. Lehman had the capital. We needed the liquidity."

And again: "The terms that ended up being used were "crisis" and "bailout." Had the Fed provided liquidity to Lehman Brothers, those terms could have been avoided."

Bear Stearns

"Bear Stearns' balance sheet, liquidity, and capital remain strong...

Our liquidity position has not changed at all, our balance sheet has not changed at all..."

Two days later, Bear Stearns effectively went bankrupt.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/2008/3/bear-stearns-bsc-did-ceo-alan-schwartz-lie-on-cnbc-#ixzz1XjW6NmmC

World Entering 'Dangerous New Phase'

"The world is collectively suffering from a crisis of confidence, in the face of a deteriorating economic outlook and rising concerns about the health of sovereigns and banks."

Economic Ills Not Temporary; Fed Will Help

"It is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped," he said, according to prepared remarks.

"The incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been holding back the recovery," he added. As such, the Fed "now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the June meeting, with greater downside risks to the economic outlook."

"Unfortunately, the recession , besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis," he said. "These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process."

"In addition to refining our forward guidance, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus," Bernanke said. "My FOMC colleagues and I will continue to consider those and other pertinent issues, including, of course, economic and financial developments, at our meeting in September and are prepared to employ these tools as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability."

© 2011 CNBC.com

Crisis 'Worse Than Lehmans'

“This crisis has the potential to be a lot worse than Lehman Brothers,” said George Soros, the hedge fund investor, citing the lack of an authoritative pan-European body to handle a banking crisis of this severity. “That is why the problem is so serious. You need a crisis to create the political will for Europe to create such an authority, but there is still no understanding as to what the authority will do.”

to buy into businesses that I think should grow in the future regardless of the short and medium global economic outlook.

Full text of President S R Nathan's farewell speech

Prime Minister
Distinguished Guests
Ladies and Gentlemen


Mr Prime Minister, I am humbled by the tribute you have paid to me. I want to thank you for all the kind words about me and my contributions, though I cannot say with certainty that some will not consider me undeserving of such compliments. With my stepping down from the Presidency tomorrow, the curtain comes down on my 50 odd years in the Public Service.

Thank you also for your kind words about my wife, whose stoically supporting role, masked by her natural graciousness, despite her ailments, helped me and contributed so much to take the Presidency, even closer to our people.

I must also thank your Cabinet colleagues and past Ministers for all the understanding and support they extended to me, throughout my public service career and particularly during the past 12 years of the Presidency.

I saw all that I did as my duty, and sought to discharge them to the best of my ability, in what were exciting times of growth and occasional ups and downs. I am grateful that you gave me all the opportunity and support to play an active role and discharge my duties at all times during the years of your Premiership.

When I was sworn in as President in 1999, I said that I will be a President for all Singaporeans, with every community of Singaporeans as my parish.

I have tried to live up to that, engaging the different races and religious groups in every way possible. I have supported a wide range of worthy causes and provided them patronage.

As you have said, I have given them support for the good work that they do, especially with the less fortunate. In my interaction with people from different walks of life, I received much goodwill and affection from countless Singaporeans.

I am deeply touched by such affection shown to me by Singaporeans, and I will always cherish that memory.

When I started the President’s Challenge as an initiative to involve the different strata of our society to help those who were disadvantaged, I was heartened at the warm response of individuals and corporations who came forth to help, through participation in the Event, volunteering as well as by raising funds.

I hope our people, corporations and voluntary organisations will continue their support in such endeavours.

Looking back over my years in the Presidency, I have been fortunate to be given the privilege to serve, with the cooperation and support I received from you and before that from Mr Goh Chok Tong, now Emeritus Senior Minister.

My years have been one of much satisfaction and a sense of fulfilment. I have seen Singapore go through some extremely challenging times, most recently during the global economic meltdown of 2008/2009.

Beyond that what stands out is how we as a people and government have shown our ability to develop a society that lives in harmony, cultural differences not having led to intolerance and our multi-lingualism making for intellectual enrichment. Above all, without natural resources we have given our people a better life, than what we inherited at Independence.

As my wife and I bid all of you goodbye, we wish each one of you all the very best in life and to you Mr Prime Minister, the strength and wisdom to lead Singaporeans successfully in the days ahead to an even better life.

We will always cherish the memory of our association with you and Madam Ho Ching and your Cabinet colleagues, as well as with each one present and others who are unable to be here, for the gift of your friendship and affection these past 12 years.

Warren Buffett buying in down market

"The lower things go, the more I buy. We are in the business of buying,"

Diamonds – together with gold and investments such as art – yield no annual interest. It also costs money to store and insure the gems. But in a low interest rate environment as central banks try to reactivate the global economy, that is a small price to pay. Conversely, if interest rates rise, particularly in Asia, diamonds could suffer against yielding assets.

A shelter for S'poreans: Tan Cheng Bock

Second Presidential candidate broadcast by Tan Cheng Bock 04:46 AM Aug 27, 2011
DEAR voters,

We have reached the end of a spirited campaign.

In the past nine days, I have met so many Singaporeans. I will never forget all your smiles, warm handshakes, and kind words.

Tonight I would like to share with you my thoughts on what a President should be.

A President should feel for his people and empathise with them. He should be someone the people can trust and relate to. Over the last 30 years, I have met Singaporeans in my clinic, in coffee shops, and at HDB void decks almost every week. As a doctor in Ama Keng village, I treated the poor and needy. As an MP in Ayer Rajah, I solved problems for many families. I laughed and cheered with them in community events. I went to the weddings and funerals of my constituents.

Over the years, I stood up for you: For more C Class beds for the poor in restructured hospitals, for the use of CPF monies to fund your children's tertiary education, for credit counselling for those in debt. When you park for free on Polling Day, remember I also fought for free parking on Sundays and public holidays. These contributions still exist for all to see. I did it all because I love my country.

I have also stood up for Singaporeans on matters of principle, like streaming at the primary school level, and the Nominated MP scheme, which I voted against. When the Government proposed the current formula for minister's pay, I warned them of the political cost in 1994. When they pushed foreign talent policy too aggressively in 1999, I asked them to Think Singaporeans First.

Even after I left office, I cared for you by helping plan a patient centred hospital for the common man, where he could access top specialists at a reasonable cost. I have cared for you in the past and will never cease doing so.

The second important quality in a President is fairness. People want a neutral President. They do not want someone too close to the Government or the Opposition. The worst thing is a proxy President who sides with the Government or the Opposition all the time.

In this campaign, you can see that I am not backed by the People's Action Party or the Singapore Democratic Party or any other political party. I owe nobody any favours.

In fact, my volunteers come from all backgrounds. In the General Election, they were PAP or Opposition supporters. But for this Presidential Election, they set aside their differences and came together as one. We have put nation above politics. This is the kind of unity I want for Singapore.

Like my election symbol, the palm tree, my presidency will be a shelter to accommodate all Singaporeans. Regardless of whether you are from the Government or Opposition, I welcome you under its shade. This is the kind of President I want to be.

The third important quality is to have the right corporate governance expertise. In guarding the reserves, the President should be someone with the relevant knowledge. A President is there to guard your savings. We do not want a President who experiments with economic theory or someone who will take over the job of the Finance Minister. He should have relevant custodial experience.

My friends, I spent 21 years in a corporate guardian role as independent chairman of Chuan Hup Holdings, a successful Singapore public listed company. We were profitable because we practised prudent and safe corporate governance.

None of the other candidates have sat on a public listed board as chairman longer than I have. I was also appointed to boards of key subsidiaries owned by top European multi-national companies. I was an independent director at ING Asia Private Bank, and ensured it obeyed all the correct procedures in its sale to OCBC in 2009.

I have a wide range of financial experience as chairman and director in three listed and two private companies. I have handled billions of dollars on projects building your MRT system when I was director and member of the executive committee at LTA.

The fourth important quality is diplomatic experience. For 15 years, I led the Singapore European and South-east Asian Parliamentary groups. I have hosted numerous foreign diplomats from Europe and ASEAN, on behalf of the Singapore Government. Hospitality is one of my strengths and I relish the opportunity to represent Singapore with dignity, poise and grace as your Head of State.

The fifth and final quality of the President is what he wants to do when he is in office. Earlier in my first speech, I have already mentioned the physical separation of powers for public confidence and the annual statement. I now want to move on to how I intend to unify Singapore.

Only the President can bridge the political divide between political parties. As the President is the neutral Head of State, I will create occasions, venues and events, for leaders of different political parties, where they can interact socially, find common ground and Think Singaporeans First.

Singaporeans should be able to see that the political debate can occur without animosity.

Also, there are many social causes which have relevant service for the country, and the President can help champion these causes to improve Singapore's civic mindedness. I can be a bridge between active citizen groups, which have passion to provide such services, to connect with the Government.

I will promote better social cohesion among our races, and our community, through sports, multi-racial events, cultural events and charities.

I will continue to actively strengthen multiracialism which is the cornerstone of our society. For this reason, I have chosen the palm tree as my election symbol. The fronds of the tree represent the many races and cultures we have in Singapore, the trunk represents them coming together to take root in Singapore.

Lastly, let me share a little about my closest team-mate. She is my wife. Together, we have always been a team. We have consulted each other frequently. She is the backbone of our family, and she is a very capable woman. She was the former CEO of NTUC Healthcare and worked tirelessly to ensure that your medicine remains affordable. She is also currently involved in a charity supporting poor Asians in the ASEAN region through education, social enterprise, and community development. She has supported me in accomplishing my dreams, and together we hope to serve Singapore with pride and distinction. She will make an excellent First Lady.

In summary, I believe I have all the necessary qualities to be your President.

I will put nation above politics.

I will strengthen multiracialism.

I will be your unifying figure.

Vote for me.

Vote for Tan Cheng Bock as your President.

I wish you well.

Good night.

Terima kasih. Vanakkam. Xie xie ni men. Kam seah. Thank you.

Positive use of moral power: Tan Jee Say

Second Presidential Candidate Broadcast by Tan Jee Say 04:45 AM Aug 27, 2011
GOOD evening, my fellow Singaporeans.

Three months ago, you voted in the present Government. Tomorrow you will vote for the President of our Republic. This election will not change the Government but will make it work harder and better for you. You will want to know how I, as President, can improve your lives.



Safeguarding your interests

The Constitution has specified five areas in which the President has the power of veto over the Government to safeguard your interests. All five are important but I will focus on two areas to show how they affect your daily lives.

The first is on the national reserves. This has been accumulated from past Government budget surpluses and other sources such as land sales. So you contribute to the reserves through the taxes you pay and the prices of HDB flats that you buy. It is your money and as President will guard it zealously. If the Government needs to use it, I will make sure that it is well spent on Government projects that benefit Singaporeans directly such as schools and hospitals.

The second area is on key appointments. As President, I will scrutinise the background and track record of all Government appointees who come before me for confirmation of their appointments. I will ensure that only true talented Singaporeans are appointed who are motivated by a sense of public service and not by huge financial rewards. Re-appointments will also be subject to the same scrutiny. Only such a system of intense scrutiny will ensure the integrity and independence of key institutions such as the civil service, the judiciary and investment agencies. Singaporeans deserve this as their daily lives and savings are at stake.



Positive use of Moral Power

The veto power of the President is a negative power. I want to use the moral authority of the President to do positive things for Singaporeans.

On the use of reserves, I intend to encourage the Government to do more and utilise it to invest in the future of our Singaporeans rather than in other people's future in overseas banks or companies.

I shall also examine more closely the appointments to government bodies, statutory boards and government linked companies. I believe that there is an over concentration of power - too few people holding too many jobs within the Government. As a result, we find the same individuals occupying many different board memberships. This is not good for Singapore as it does not allow younger Singaporeans a chance to develop their skills, acumen and exposure for higher office. I will encourage the Government to cast the net wider so that more Singaporeans will be given opportunities for exposure and advancement.

Promoting Social Causes

For too long, you have been accustomed to the idea that the President has a limited ceremonial and diplomatic role. But then why the need for an Elected Presidency, with such a generous salary? In seeking the Presidency, I am not motivated by personal gain or monetary gain. As a former civil servant, I have always been driven by public service. Rather than receiving over S$25 million for six years, I intend to return the bulk of the President's pay to the people if I am elected.

I will use the office of President to promote causes that unite Singaporeans. The fast pace of change has left large sections of Singaporeans behind who feel neglected and are angry that nothing has been done to alleviate their sufferings. A President has the duty and ability to address their concerns. I will initiate programmes that will galvanise the young and the young at heart, and harness their energies to build a better Singapore. At the same time, I will do my utmost to help the poor, the sick, the under-privileged, the retrenched and the unemployed. Many have been left behind to live quiet desperate lives. It is the duty of the President to use his moral authority to help bridge the widening social divisions in our society. In order to do that, the President must have the courage to question the Government judiciously, and encourage them to do better. The President needs to exercise his powers independently, without fear or favour. We Singaporeans have had such a President before, and we need such a President again, now.



Five Qualities

I would like to tell you why I am the best man for this mission. I have five qualities that collectively distinguish me from the other three candidates.

First, I have Government service experience. For over 11 years, I interacted and worked with colleagues in other ministries to promote the interests of Singaporeans. We asked and checked each other all the time as we pursued the best solutions for Singapore's problems. I was able to work amicably with my colleagues as we respected each other. If I am elected President, I will use the same kind of amicable attitude based on mutual respect in my relationship with the Government. This should not be a problem for me as I had worked with the Prime Minister before when he was the Minister for Trade and Industry.

Second, I have experience in performing diplomatic duty as I have represented Singapore in overseas meetings and official visits.

Third, I have a deep understanding of economics and global finance through my work experience in economic planning and international banks.

Fourth, I am the only one candidate who has never been a member of the ruling party and so can truly claim to be independent of the Government without any conflict of emotions to interfere in my work, and

Last but not least, I have empathy for people who struggle to make a living. This is an important quality that will help the President heal the deep social divisions and unify the nation. I know what it is like to be poor because I came from the poor. My mother was a washerwoman who toiled day and night to bring up nine children. However hard our family worked, there was never enough and we were grateful for the generous help from friends and relatives. I know the value of community help and will promote it to make life an enjoyable experience for all.

Like you, I also value political and social stability. I have four young school-going children and I want them to grow up and pursue their dreams in a stable and friendly Singapore. As President, I will work together with the Government in a constructive and non-confrontational manner so as to preserve and protect the stable and friendly environment that will allow them and all other Singaporeans to blossom.



Vote with your Heart

My fellow Singaporeans, you will vote in a new President tomorrow. I am honoured to come before you tonight asking for your vote. The Presidential Elections Committee has certified me as a candidate of integrity, good character and reputation. It also certified me as having such experience and ability in financial affairs that I can effectively carry out the functions and duties of the President.

I know that the journey is a long and hard one. But if I walk it together with you, we will complete our journey side by side. I know that ordinary Singaporeans like you will have the courage to vote for change. You stood up decisively on May 7 and showed the way for others to follow. So come tomorrow, vote with your heart. Put a cross next to the symbol of the heart, the heart of the nation. You have the power to make a change. Use it. And vote me to be your next President.

Thank you and good night.