Saturday, October 25, 2008

When US Catches Cold, The World Catches SARS

Emerging Stock Markets
Globally, emerging stock markets have lost 60 percent of their value since May, slumping to their lowest in four years and losing 38 percent in October alone.
Russia's stock market has been one of the biggest losers, down 75 percent this year as war with Georgia, worries over government interference in investments, global problems, bank worries and falling oil prices sent capital fleeing.
Among other key emerging markets, Brazilian stocks have lost 47 percent, Indian stocks have lost 57 percent and Chinese stocks 65 percent this year.

Currencies Slump
Emerging currencies are also broadly sold off, with countries with large current account deficits and political risk suffering particularly. South Africa's rand is down 40 percent against the dollar this year, while the Turkish lira has lost more than 30 percent.

Debt Seen Much Riskier
Emerging sovereign debt spreads -- a measure of how risky emerging sovereign debt is seen relative to U.S. Treasuries -- have more than doubled this year to their widest in six years.
The cost of insuring emerging market debt in the credit default swaps market has also ballooned to several times the cost earlier in the year, with several countries including Pakistan and Ukraine pricing in probable default.
Ratings agencies have downgraded a string of countries particularly in central and eastern Europe on deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and the cost of bailing out troubled local banks.

Crisis Hotspots
Iceland's highly indebted banking sector collapsed, taking with it the currency and broader economy and leaving the country dependent on a bailout from either the International Monetary Fund or possibly Russia.
Other countries seen talking to the IMF about help include Pakistan, Belarus, Serbia, Hungary, Turkey and Ukraine.
Central and eastern European economies are seen heavily exposed, with banking sectors under increasing pressure and requiring government support.

-REUTERS

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